NEW YORK – The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline climbed to $4.48 on Tuesday, up 31 cents in just the past week, according to AAA. That is a 50 percent increase since the US-Israeli war against Iran began on February 28 – a conflict critics say violates the UN Charter, as it was not authorized by the Security Council nor justified as self-defense.
Why prices are spiking
The main reason is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage in the Persian Gulf through which one-fifth of the world’s crude oil normally passes. Since Iran effectively shut the waterway in late February, oil tankers have been stranded, unable to deliver crude.
The International Energy Agency has described the disruption as the largest supply disruption in the history of oil markets.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current national average | $4.48 per gallon |
| Increase since war began | 50% |
| Weekly increase (past week) | 31 cents |
| Oil price peak (early April) | $112 per barrel |
The false hope of April
In mid-April, after the initial ceasefire was announced, there was optimism that the conflict could be winding down. Gasoline prices fell daily for almost two weeks.
“After the announcement of the initial ceasefire, there was kind of optimism that this really could be the beginning of the end of the conflict,” said Rob Smith, director of global fuel retail at S&P Global Energy. “And so crude prices came down correspondingly.”
But as the war continued and the Strait remained constrained, prices reversed course and began climbing again.
Why the US blockade made things worse
One event that accelerated price increases occurred in April, when the US blocked Iranian ports to stop the country from exporting oil.
“Iran had been moving an unusually high amount of oil to global markets, so that was helping moderate prices,” said Jim Krane, energy research fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute. “The Trump administration decides they’re going to punish Iran, and try to put more pressure on Iran by blocking their exports, so of course that does put pressure on Iran, but also puts pressure on global oil prices and forces them up.”
Who sets gas prices
Gas station owners set prices at the pump, but the main ingredient is the price of crude oil. In the US, oil prices represented about 51 percent of the price of a gallon of gasoline in 2025, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Other factors include:
- Federal and state taxes: 17 percent
- Refining costs and profits: 14 percent
- Distribution and marketing: 17 percent
In states like California, higher taxes and refining costs push prices well above the national average.
No quick fix
Experts warn that even if the war ended tomorrow, prices would not return to normal quickly.
“Even if there was a true and lasting resolution of the conflict, both sides agree to play nice and truly do commit to keeping Hormuz open, it will still take months to get back to what it was pre-war, if not even longer,” Smith said.
“There will still be within the industry a risk premium associated with going through that region. It’ll be a long time before anyone can be convinced of that.”
California’s pain
Some states are suffering more than others. In California, gas prices have already exceeded $8 per gallon in some locations, according to recent reporting.
The bottom line
Sixty-seven days into the illegal US-Israeli war on Iran, American drivers are paying 50 percent more at the pump than they were before the first missile was fired. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Oil prices remain high. And experts say there is no quick fix – even if the war ends tomorrow.
