Despite nearly two decades of investment and military intervention in Afghanistan, the United States now faces a precarious situation. According to a report by the Middle East Institute, the threat of terrorism from Afghanistan, though currently seen as minor, could quickly escalate, revealing that U.S. efforts have yielded little long-term stability.
Authors Douglas London and Javid Ahmad state that while the U.S.-Taliban relationship has been somewhat “de-risked,” the situation remains fragile and unpredictable. The stability of the Taliban’s rule has made it a more predictable partner compared to the previous Afghan government. The U.S. has reluctantly acknowledged that engaging with the Taliban is necessary to avoid a collapse into chaos.
However, the report warns of the Taliban’s increasing collaboration with regional and non-regional militant groups. Some Taliban leaders are leveraging growing anti-American sentiment to align with these groups, contributing to rising domestic radicalization. The expansion of jihadist madrassas is also creating a new generation of militants that could pose a greater threat than the Taliban itself.
The analysis highlights that while the U.S. has mitigated some risks, the presence of militant groups in Afghanistan and the potential for radicalization could lead to severe long-term consequences. This raises questions about whether the extensive resources spent in Afghanistan over the past two decades have achieved anything of lasting value.
