Nearly four months into the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Pentagon’s official cost estimate stands at $29 billion. The real number, according to experts, is already closer to $200 billion — and the final bill could exceed $1 trillion.
The gap is not an accounting error. It is a pattern.
During the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, the Pentagon consistently underreported costs by excluding long-term obligations such as veterans’ healthcare, base repairs, and interest on debt. The Costs of War Project at Brown University ultimately calculated that those conflicts cost American taxpayers more than $4 trillion — nearly double the official estimates at the time.
The Iran war is following the same playbook. And American families are paying the price.
Billions in direct military spending
On May 12, Acting Pentagon Comptroller Jules Hurst III told the House Armed Services Committee that the war had cost $29 billion. But experts say that number ignores the true cost of the conflict.
In the first 48 hours of the war alone, the US spent $1 billion. Spending continued at a rate of $1 billion per day for weeks.
Linda Bilmes, a Harvard Kennedy School senior public policy lecturer and federal budget expert, told Fortune that upfront spending is more likely to total the $200 billion amount in additional funds the Pentagon requested in March. That amount covers the costs of deploying more than 50,000 troops, repairs and maintenance, and munitions.
The Defense Department is low-balling its estimates by calculating the cost of current munitions, not how much it will cost to replace them. For example, Tomahawk missiles used in Iran cost between $1 million and $2 million to make. Now, based on signed contracts with defense contractors, replacing them costs between $3 million and $6 million each.
“Replacement cost of the inventory is two to three times higher than the inventory costs they’re using,” Bilmes told Fortune.
The scale of munitions used is staggering. Within the first seven weeks of the war, the Pentagon used at least 45 percent of its Precision Strike Missile stockpile, 50 percent of its THAAD interceptors, and nearly half of its Patriot ballistic interceptor missiles, according to an analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Rebuilding bases and supporting allies
The US military sustained significant damage to its installations across the Middle East. According to Bilmes, 228 structures in Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have been severely damaged, including radar systems and housing units. Repairing these facilities could cost $200 to $300 billion over the next three to five years.
On top of that, the US will likely provide aid to allies — especially the UAE, which coordinated strikes on Iran — to rebuild damaged infrastructure as well.
A $1 trillion final bill
All in all — including military benefits, increased government spending, and long-term obligations — the total cost of the war will top $1 trillion, Bilmes predicted.
The Trump administration has already asked Congress for a 42 percent increase on the defense budget for the next fiscal year, bringing military spending to $1.5 trillion.
“Congress is not going to do that,” Bilmes said. “But even if you imagine that Congress eventually approves $50 or $100 billion a year above and beyond what it would have approved in the absence of this war, over 10 years, that’s already 500 billion to a trillion dollars.”
The cost to American households
Beyond federal spending, American families have felt the war acutely at the gas pump and in the supermarket aisles. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz choked off two billion barrels of oil from the world’s supply, according to data analytics firm Kpler.
Gasoline prices have jumped 51.4 percent. Diesel prices have risen 53.4 percent. The total consumer burden has exceeded $42 billion, translating to approximately $322 per American household.
Auto loan delinquencies are at a 30-year high. Oil prices remain above $100 per barrel. And the national average for gas is projected to hit $5 per gallon.
The bottom line
The Pentagon says $29 billion. Independent experts say $200 billion and counting. The final bill could exceed $1 trillion.
Americans are paying for this war every time they fill up their tank, every time they pay their taxes, and every time they open their utility bills. The war was avoidable. The cost is not.
